Whatever Robert Jenrick’s intentions, it highlights a problem for Kemi Badenoch: her leadership is becoming the subject of speculation
Something odd happened on Thursday morning – the Tory party came together. Only the meeting was over WhatsApp and it quickly fell apart. Robert Jenrick created a chat group titled “V” with the great and good of the British right.
Former prime ministers including Boris Johnson and Liz Truss found their numbers shared as they were added alongside MPs, Tory donors and hacks. “I screenshotted all the numbers,” said one journalist, who briefly found themselves in the group.
The group chat was technically created to support Jenrick’s marathon fundraising efforts but some attendees had other ideas. Before Jenrick hastily removed people, messages were shared in support of the shadow justice secretary – including one that read: ‘RJ for PM’.
Whatever Jenrick’s intentions, it highlights a problem for Kemi Badenoch.
Her leadership is becoming the subject of speculation, which is never a good place for a Tory leader to be. Next month, this speculation is likely to increase as the Conservative Party braces for a difficult set of local elections. The last time many of the councils were up for grabs was during a high point for Boris Johnson, when the then prime minister was enjoying a vaccine-poll boost. Conservative Campaign Headquarters is braced for losses – and is attempting a damage limitation game by setting expectations as low as possible.
Even Badenoch’s critics admit she is in no imminent danger. The Tory party’s issues are big enough that no one can seriously land them on a leader who has only been in the post for a couple of months. And news this week that 15 people including a former Tory MP have been charged with betting offences relating to gambling on the election date is a reminder that the Badenoch is still having to deal with the baggage of the party under other leadership.
But it’s not uncommon to hear figures in the Conservative Party, Labour and Reform ask – will Badenoch still be leader by the time of the general election?
“I think it will be this time next year that there’s a serious assessment of how she is doing,” says a member of the shadow Cabinet. In the meantime, there’s plenty of chatter over who might be ready to step into her place if the ball were to come loose. It hasn’t gone unnoticed that two of Badenoch’s former leadership rivals – Jenrick and James Cleverly – have been out on the Tory association dinner circuit.
If Badenoch is to avoid the fate of many of her Tory predecessors and avoid a push against her she needs to use the coming months to silence her critics. Badenoch has at least a year – she should use it wisely. Already, there have been a few rays of light for Tory MPs who feel it’s all been a little lo-fi up until now.
Badenoch’s recent spat with BBC presenters over her decision not to watch the Netflix series Adolescence has been seen as a much needed dose of reality. When pressed on misogyny, Badenoch said she didn’t need to watch the show to have a view, just as she could talk about the NHS without having to tune into Casualty. “I liked that,” says a Tory on the right. “That’s Kemi’s stubbornness working well”. After the Supreme Court’s ruling that the legal definition of a woman should be based on biological sex, Badenoch looks ahead of the curve. As a former minister for women and equalities, the Tory leader has long argued the importance of biological sex and women only spaces.
“Opposition is thankless at the best of times,” says a shadow minister. “Kemi has it worse because of Reform – there is even less patience”. The hope is that the ongoing policy commissions will lead to a sense of momentum as the party starts to take positions that show where it stands.
But until then her best means of defence is the idea there is not a better alternative and that’s where we get back to group “V”. For a while now, allies of Badenoch have felt Jenrick has been crossing the line on what counts as an energetic shadow minister mastering their brief and what is naked positioning for the leadership. “There is nobody in London who doesn’t know what he’s doing,” snipes a senior Tory.
So, how should Badenoch handle her Jenrick problem? There are two options doing the rounds. The first is to bring in tighter controls over what he does and reign him in a bit. However, this is seen as problematic. Were Badenoch to try to clip Jenrick’s wings, some in the party would see this as defensive and self-defeating. After all, of all the shadow ministers it is Jenrick making the political weather – his campaign on “two tier justice” helped to change the sentencing council guidelines on ethnic minority groups. “Kemi can’t afford to lose her most effective colleague,” says one Tory, who supported Jenrick in the leadership. What’s more, were Badenoch to take any action that might trigger another round of Tory civil war it could be the death knell for the party. “One more psycho thing and we are done,” says a senior Tory.
It’s why for now another approach is preferred: hope the rivals trip up on their own terms. “Robert’s just shared the private phone numbers of a bunch of very senior people with hundreds of people – that’s not going to make him popular,” says a shadow minister. One of the figures on the group, too, was from the Reform party – an addition that has not gone unnoticed by true blue Tories sceptical of a pact. Supporters of Jenrick make the case this shouldn’t be an issue given the group was about marathon sponsorship.
While the group may have been set up for charitable reasons, on Thursday Jenrick made a misstep. Until Badenoch can turn the polls around of her own accord, her supporters will be hoping for plenty more of them.
